Miami Heat On Track so far ? 1/3

A couple days ago in my previous post I predicted the Heat going on a 3-0 run on the season with the upcoming games against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Dallas Mavericks and the Utah Jazz.

Today's game was the first of that set of matchups, against the Timberwolves and the Heat pulled out this one despite the massive rebounding disparity, favoring the Timberwolves 52-24.

But Wade and LeBron and the help of 20 turnovers and +16 in the fastbreak points were the difference in this one. The offense was smooth with Wade driving at will and showing versatility on the block. LeBron facilitated the offense and with the team playing this way the team becomes hard to beat.

Other stats

The Heat had 25 assists for 36 makes shooting 52% from the 3 point line. This is a desirable ratio that we want to see from this team. In most cases when the 3 point shooting is this efficient, the ball moves more which is reflected by the assists and now multiple "triggers" as coach Spoelstra calls them, occur within one possession.

The Heat's defense showed up this game, especially at the 3 point line holding the TWolves to 43% from the field and 23.5% from 3 and recording 14 blocks. The key piece missing was the defensive rebounds horrendous and the Heat cannot expect this result with type of rebounding effort.

In fairness when watching the game, many rebound stat opportunities were actually missed due to the hustle from the TWolves that ultimately sent the ball out of bounds with the Heat retaining possession.

Notable

Norris Coles' on ball defense has been sharp of late and today was no exception. He made the speedy JJ Barea look like he was in quick sand, unable to burn him to use the penetrate and kick attack. That said, the Heat got  the good Mario Chalmers today scoring 12 points on 4/7 shooting.

It was a fresh reminder having Dwyane Wade show everyone why he's considered one of the best shooting guards of all time and best blocking shooting guard of all time showing explosiveness translating to 24 points and a couple blocks, one on Love on a dunk and one on Pekovic and throughout the game basically abusing Shved on the block.

The Call

Based on how things are lining up at this point I won't waver from the prediction of the Heat beating the Mavs on the road for this next one. We will follow up after this game and see how I stand with the 3-0 call. 

1 for 1 so far.

Miami Heat On Track so far?

The season so far has the defending champs at a 15-6 record through 21 games in this young season (11-2 at home and 4-4 on the road) With this in mind we ask ourselves, are the Miami Heat on track so far?

This is a relatively small sample size but seeing as we are about 25% of  the way in, it will be interesting to see how they stack so far.

The Heat are now second in the East and prior to the start of the season it was widely believed that the Heat would sit comfortably at the top of the conference. Alas, they are not, but this does not necessarily mean it is a bad thing for this team. So far the Heat have shown flashes of a well oiled offense and the potential for the combo of the shooting prowess of the team making space for the already difficult to defend, Wade and LeBron.

They key piece missing overall is the defense that we are accustomed to. As a fan, you would hope for your team to be tearing up every single game winning with an average of 20 points, but in reality the NBA is too good for such a feat to be expected. What I do like from the Heat season so far is the types of games (win and lose) that have occurred so far. This includes complete dismantling of teams and the offense running smoothly such as against Boston, Phoenix and the Hawks this year. To close grind-out wins, regardless if it was a sub .500 team or not (3 Ray Allen winners?). The Heat have also been on the other side of things, including two consecutive thrashings from the New York Knicks one very early in the season with a
barrage of 3 pointers, and the second time when Melo was out. They have also lost games in the clutch as well which are the types of games that generally have questions pop up about LeBron's clutchness (or lack thereof).

The reason that this type of showing so far has been positive is that there are no lessons learned from winning comfortably and never being challenged. Also, with the defense and lineup still being tinkered with, the Heat's 15-6 record is a strong showing for second in the East - this should not raise any alarm bells at this point considering the Heat haven't finished first in the East including their championship season. What we want to be seeing are these lineup changes and rotation changes even though majority of the team is still the same pieces. This still allows for coach Spo to have many more educated options when going with particular lineups against different teams.

New Pieces

In regards to the new pieces, they are performing close to what could be expected coming into the season. I see Ray Allen as performing slightly better than expected and Rashard Lewis performing slightly worse than expected (so far).

Position-less offense

The position-less offense is still a concept yet to be fully proven, but I do like the idea of it and believe there can be much success from it. Last year when this was incorporated against the Thunder it was very effective as was proven by the result of the season. Against bigger teams though it still needs some work - mainly in the defensive coverages. As the team is stocked with versatile defenders like Wade, LeBron and Battier to highlight a few, this allows the Heat to use this style of game. The offense is never stagnant and
the out of bounds plays have resembled a veteran team so far this season.

Overall

The season so far for the Miami Heat has largely been a success. The losses have kept the Heats' defense honest, exposing the tendency to lean on offense to pull out wins (so far). The team has come to accept this and are (in theory) putting in the works to exorcise this bad habit.

They have 3 west teams coming up in the Timberwolves, the Mavericks and the Jazz to thoroughly test their defensive adjustment. Look for the Heat going 3-0 for this stretch with closer games against the TWolves with the return of Ricky Rubio providing a spark and perhaps a surprising Jazz. We'll check back in after the Jazz game just before the Christmas showdown of a finals rematch against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Next week lets see if this prediction comes true and review whether they are still "on track".